Crypto markets have been shaky lately, and the Pudgy Penguins token hasn’t escaped the storm. PENGU price has dropped by about 20% in the last five days, now sitting around $0.018. It looks like just another dip in a bearish market, but as analyst Gerhard from Bitcoin Strategy points out, the surface never tells the full story.
According to him, the key question isn’t whether PENGU is down, it’s who’s buying and selling behind the scenes. Gerhard’s deep dive into Pudgy Penguins’ on-chain data reveals that the token behaves differently from typical meme coins. Many meme coins on Solana, like those launched via Pump.fun, have fixed supplies.
PENGU, however, increases in supply over time. That might sound negative since more supply can create selling pressure, yet it also shows that there’s ongoing development and marketing around the project, something many other meme coins lack.
Pudgy Penguins currently sits as the second-largest meme coin on the Solana chain, trailing only Trump. The project holds a market cap of about $1.1 billion, signaling that despite price weakness, its ecosystem remains one of the most significant in Solana’s growing meme economy.
PENGU Token Performance Against Solana and the Wider Market
When looking at the PENGU price in U.S. dollars, Gerhard notes that it’s largely influenced by the broader market. When Bitcoin and Solana move up, PENGU tends to follow. When they drop, it usually dips as well.
To get a clearer view, Gerhard analyzed Pudgy Penguins’ relative performance against other altcoins and Solana itself. Since July, PENGU has been in a consistent downtrend compared to the wider altcoin market. Despite this, it sits near the lower end of its range, which could leave room for a short-term rebound of roughly 25%.
Still, the analyst stresses that momentum remains weak and that the token faces a “glass ceiling” when measured against Solana. This suggests that the token may struggle to outperform Solana in the near term, especially if Solana continues to experience heavy volatility.
Who Holds PENGU? The Behavior of Whales and Retail Traders
There are currently about 542,000 holders of the PENGU token. Over the past month, as the token dropped roughly 33%, the number of transactions has stayed relatively stable, though slightly tilted downward.
What’s interesting is that whales wallets holding between $1,000 and $100,000 worth of PENGU haven’t been increasing their positions. Most of the activity now seems to come from small retail investors, not large holders.
Gerhard notes that earlier in the year, especially during the strong rallies of June and July, the number of holders didn’t actually grow much. This suggests that price action was driven more by leveraged trading than real on-chain accumulation.
Another shift Gerhard observed is how trading activity has moved away from the spot market. In the last 24 hours, about $48 million worth of PENGU changed hands on Binance’s spot market, while perpetual futures trading hit $240 million.
That’s a huge difference and it matters. It means price swings are now dominated by traders betting on short-term price movements, rather than long-term holders accumulating tokens. This could explain why the PENGU price no longer reacts strongly to on-chain growth.
PENGU Funding Rates and Momentum Tell a Cautious Story
After a sharp crash on October 10, funding rates on PENGU futures haven’t recovered. Gerhard explains that this indicates fewer traders are betting on rising prices. The open interest in perpetual contracts dropped from $340 million to $100 million and hasn’t bounced back since.
The Pudgy Penguins token still has its loyal community and branding strength, yet the numbers suggest a market that’s cooling off. Upcoming token unlocks in December could add more supply, putting extra pressure on price unless strong demand returns.
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Gerhard compares PENGU’s situation to broader altcoin trends. He reminds investors that even when altcoin market caps stay stable, prices often fall because of inflation from unlocks and insider sales. In his view, this pattern is common and highlights how supply growth can quietly drag prices lower.
He uses Worldcoin as an example: its market cap grew while its price dropped from around $10 to below $1. Similar forces might be at play across the altcoin space including meme coins like PENGU.
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