Jupiter, the leading decentralized exchange (DEX) aggregator on Solana, officially launched its first native prediction market in beta form.
This new feature allows users to trade on real-world event outcomes directly within the Jupiter platform, with liquidity and data powered by Kalshi, a U.S.-regulated event contract exchange overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The integration bridges traditional finance’s regulatory-compliant prediction trading with Solana’s high-speed, low-cost DeFi ecosystem, aiming to enhance liquidity, transparency, and accessibility for retail traders.
The beta kicks off with a focus on sports betting, specifically the winner of the Formula 1 Mexico Grand Prix scheduled for October 26, 2025. Users can speculate on drivers like Max Verstappen current favorite at 47.61% odds, Lando Norris (27.3%), Oscar Piastri, or George Russell.
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How It Works: Traders buy and sell “Yes” or “No” shares for specific outcomes (e.g., “Yes” on Verstappen winning). Share prices fluctuate between $0.01 and $0.99 based on market sentiment and supply/demand.
Positions can be exited anytime before resolution. At event end, correct “Yes/No” shares pay out $1 each; incorrect ones expire worthless. Settlement is on-chain via Solana for speed and auditability.
Trading Limits (Beta Safeguards): To maintain stability, the global cap is 100,000 contracts, with a per-user limit of 1,000 contracts. Available now via the Jupiter app at jup.ag/prediction. No bridging is required for Solana users, and it’s designed for seamless integration with existing wallets.
This launch positions Jupiter as a frontrunner in on-chain prediction markets, competing with platforms like Polymarket while leveraging Kalshi’s established liquidity Kalshi has handled significant volumes in sports and non-political events.
Prediction markets overall have grown rapidly, with total value locked (TVL) across platforms hitting $241.9 million recently. By combining Kalshi’s compliance and depth with Solana’s efficiency, Jupiter could attract traditional finance users wary of unregulated DeFi, while enabling new use cases like hedging real-world risks (e.g., economic data or geopolitics) in future expansions.
Kalshi’s role is pivotal: As a CFTC-regulated entity since 2021, it provides event resolution data and liquidity without Jupiter acting as a broker. Early community buzz on X highlights the “solid combo” for better pricing and liquidity.
X users are optimistic, with comments like “Moon that” from Kalshi’s crypto lead and calls for more Solana-DeFi integrations. This follows similar moves, like Polymarket’s Solana integration and World App’s Polymarket tie-up, signaling a broader trend of prediction markets entering mainstream crypto.
Kalshi is a U.S.-based prediction market platform regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), a federal agency overseeing derivatives markets. Since receiving approval in November 2020, Kalshi operates as a Designated Contract Market (DCM) under the CFTC, making it the first regulated exchange for event contracts in the U.S.
This status subjects Kalshi to strict compliance with the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and CFTC regulations. Kalshi offers trading on “event contracts,” which are binary (yes/no) markets based on real-world outcomes, such as sports results, economic indicators, or weather events.
These contracts are treated as commodity derivatives, requiring CFTC approval for each market type to ensure they serve a legitimate economic purpose (e.g., hedging or price discovery) and avoid sensitive topics like political elections in some cases.
Kalshi must adhere to CFTC rules on market integrity, including anti-manipulation measures, transparent pricing, and regular reporting of trading activity. Funds are held in segregated accounts, and Kalshi enforces know-your-customer (KYC) and anti-money-laundering (AML) checks to verify user identities and prevent illicit activity.
The CFTC imposes caps on contract sizes (e.g., $25,000 per contract for certain markets) and restricts retail participation in some high-risk markets to protect consumers.
Kalshi uses predefined, objective data sources for settling contracts (e.g., official sports outcomes or government economic reports), ensuring fairness and reducing disputes.
Significance for Jupiter’s Integration
By partnering with Kalshi, Jupiter leverages a regulated liquidity pool and event resolution data, allowing its Solana-based prediction markets to operate with compliance in the U.S.
This contrasts with unregulated platforms like Polymarket, giving Kalshi-powered markets like Jupiter’s a legal edge for U.S. users. Kalshi’s CFTC regulation restricts certain markets like political betting was only recently allowed under specific conditions and limits participation based on U.S. state laws, which may affect Jupiter’s market accessibility.
