Goldman Sachs Warns of Rising Global Risks from China’s Rare Earth Dominance as U.S. and Australia Strike Minerals Pact

Goldman Sachs has warned that global supply chains for rare earths and other critical minerals are facing mounting risks as China tightens export controls and extends its dominance over key stages of mining, refining, and manufacturing.

The bank’s latest note came at the heels of growing challenges confronting nations and industries seeking to build independent supply chains in the face of what it called China’s entrenched leverage in the critical minerals market.

The caution comes after Beijing expanded its export curbs on October 9, adding five new rare earth elements to its restricted list and imposing tighter scrutiny on semiconductor-related users. The move, announced just weeks ahead of an expected summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, reinforced fears that China could increasingly weaponize its control of strategic materials in response to escalating trade tensions.

China’s Supply Chain Leverage

Goldman Sachs said China now controls about 69% of global rare earth mining, 92% of refining capacity, and 98% of magnet manufacturing, giving it an unrivaled grip on the supply chains that power modern technologies. Rare earth elements (REEs), though produced in relatively small volumes, are essential for high-tech industries and strategic applications — from electric vehicle batteries and computer chips to artificial intelligence systems, advanced robotics, and defense equipment.

While the global rare earth market was valued at $6 billion last year — a fraction of the copper market, which is 33 times larger — Goldman warned that a 10% disruption in industries reliant on REEs could wipe out $150 billion in global economic output. Such a disruption, the bank noted, could also trigger inflationary pressures as shortages ripple through manufacturing, energy, and defense sectors.

Goldman Sachs identified samarium, graphite, lutetium, and terbium as particularly vulnerable to Chinese export restrictions. Samarium, used in heat-resistant samarium-cobalt magnets, plays a critical role in aerospace and defense systems. Lutetium and terbium, which are used in semiconductors, sensors, and lasers, are also at risk, with potential GDP losses if supplies are disrupted.

The bank further noted that light rare earths — such as cerium and lanthanum — could become future targets for export curbs, given China’s dominant role in both refining and mining. These elements are widely used in catalysts, glass polishing, and hybrid vehicle components.

While Western producers such as Lynas Rare Earths (LYC.AX) in Australia and Solvay in Europe could help ease shortages, Goldman said global reliance on China remains substantial. Even companies with domestic refining capacity still depend on Chinese feedstock or intermediate processing.

Barriers to Building Independent Supply Chains

Countries have accelerated efforts to develop independent rare earth and magnet supply chains, but Goldman Sachs highlighted deep structural and environmental barriers that make near-term independence unlikely.

The bank said heavy rare earth elements (HREEs), which include terbium, dysprosium, and lutetium, are especially scarce outside China and Myanmar. Known deposits elsewhere tend to be small, lower-grade, or radioactive, making them economically and environmentally challenging to develop. It typically takes eight to ten years to bring a new rare earth mine into production.

Refining capacity poses another hurdle. Goldman said building and optimizing a new refinery takes at least five years, requiring advanced expertise and specialized infrastructure to separate and purify elements with extremely similar chemical properties. Few countries have the necessary facilities or environmental tolerance to process these materials at scale.

Even as magnet manufacturing expands in the United States, Japan, and Germany, Goldman noted that production remains constrained by China’s control of key inputs such as samarium and neodymium.

Investment and Commodity Risks

Goldman Sachs recommended equities as a potential hedge against rare earth supply disruptions, highlighting Iluka Resources (ILU.AX), Lynas Rare Earths (LYC.AX), and MP Materials Corp (MP.N) as key players positioned to benefit from investment flows into alternative supply chains. The bank forecast a deficit in supplies of Neodymium-Praseodymium Oxide (NdPrO) — a compound crucial for high-strength permanent magnets used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, and smartphones.

The report also extended its caution beyond rare earths. Goldman Sachs warned that other commodities — including cobalt, oil, and natural gas — face rising risks of supply disruptions amid intensifying geopolitical tensions and growing resource nationalism. It cited recent developments in the Middle East and Africa, where instability has already affected exports of strategic materials essential for clean energy technologies.

U.S. and Australia Move to Counter China’s Grip

Amid growing concern about China’s dominance, President Donald Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Monday signed an agreement at the White House intended to boost supplies of rare earths and other critical minerals. The pact will see the U.S. and Australia jointly contribute $3 billion to a pipeline of projects worth $8.5 billion over the next six months, according to both governments.

As part of the agreement, the U.S. Department of Defense will invest in a gallium refinery in Western Australia capable of producing 100 tons per year. The U.S. currently imports roughly 21 tons of gallium, representing 100% of its domestic consumption, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Gallium is used in microwave circuits, blue and violet LEDs, and other advanced electronics that are vital for defense and high-tech industries.

The deal reflects a concerted push by Washington and Canberra to counter China’s control of critical minerals markets — particularly after Beijing’s recent tightening of export controls. It also builds on previous U.S.-Australia cooperation under the Critical Minerals Partnership, which seeks to diversify sources of essential materials for defense, clean energy, and semiconductors.

China responded on Tuesday to the U.S.-Australia critical minerals agreement by calling on resource-rich countries to help maintain supply chain stability. Speaking in Beijing, Guo Jiakun, a spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, was asked about the deal, which has been widely viewed as an effort to counter Beijing’s dominance.

“The formation of global production and supply chains is the result of market and corporate choices,” Guo said, according to NBC. “Resource-rich nations with critical minerals should play a proactive role in safeguarding the security and stability of the industrial and supply chains, and ensure normal economic and trade cooperation,” he added.

While Guo did not directly criticize the U.S.-Australia agreement, the statement signaled Beijing’s intention to frame its dominance as market-driven and legitimate, even as Western nations increase efforts to reduce dependency on Chinese raw materials.