Ripple’s XRP price has been quiet for months, but not everyone sees that as a negative. Analyst EGRAG CRYPTO says the long-term structure remains intact and that the market is underestimating what may still be coming.
His outlook points to a potential 2.4x move from current levels, placing the next target somewhere between $5.50 and $6.00 if the cycle continues to follow past behavior.
Cycle Math That Drives the XRP $6 Target
The biggest part of his thesis comes from comparing the past cycle to the current one. In 2017 and 2018, XRP rallied more than 3,700%. In the current cycle, the move so far is around 370%, which is roughly 10% of the earlier expansion.
If XRP price continues with that 10% pattern applied to the final stage of the cycle, the math supports a move of about 2,440% from the bottom to the peak.
Those figures line up with the $5.50 to $6.00 region. The 2-week Gaussian Channel still supports this scenario as long as XRP continues holding inside the structure.
Moreover, some traders argue that XRP already peaked and that future returns will be smaller. EGRAG disagrees. He points out that the last cycle was heavily influenced by the SEC case, which limited upside and blocked a lot of new interest.
Now that regulatory pressure has eased and the asset trades with more clarity, he expects price action closer to what you would expect from a growing technology trend rather than declining momentum. Using the previous cycle’s growth as a model would once again point above $5 per token.
XRP’s historical bottoms have also improved each cycle. That kind of behavior typically shows increased confidence and stronger underlying demand.
Even if the next bear market arrives after a run toward $5 or $6, the expected correction would likely still leave XRP price far above the past lows. That is the kind of structure long-term investors look for because it means the asset is maturing.
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XRP Key Level Standing in the Way
The price continues to sit beneath a major multi-year resistance zone, the same one that capped XRP during the 2018 and 2021 peaks. It has returned to that ceiling again and continues to press against it slowly.
When a level holds for this long without breaking structure, the pressure behind it often grows. A breakout above this range historically leads to fast-moving expansion that does not give traders much time to react.
However, the setup remains constructive. Long-term support is secure, volatility is low, and the cycle math still points higher. If XRP price behaves anything like it has in earlier cycles, the explosive part may still be ahead, not behind. All it needs is a clean breakout to confirm the next phase of the trend.
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