Multi-timeframe BTC Analysis
D1 — BTC Analysis
EMA: Price at 105,936.43 USDT trades below the EMA20 (114,329.64), EMA50 (114,701.44), and EMA200 (109,086.65). This alignment keeps trend pressure bearish and signals that buyers have not yet regained control. For a comprehensive overview of Bitcoin, visit the official Bitcoin website.
RSI: The RSI(14) sits at 34.43, below 50, indicating a bearish bias; momentum feels cautious, with buyers hesitant to commit on pullbacks. As covered recently in analysis on Bitcoin price trends below $110,000, current readings confirm the neutral-bearish regime.
MACD: MACD line -1,538.72 vs signal 6.83 with a histogram at -1,545.55. This negative spread confirms downside momentum is still dominant.
Bollinger Bands: Bands center at 116,509.01 with the lower band at 105,488.27 and upper at 127,529.75. Price hovers near the lower band, suggesting pressure but also the potential for mean reversion if sellers tire. Explore more about technical drivers in the BTCUSD technical analysis on TradingView.
ATR: ATR(14) at 4,965.04 USDT signals higher volatility; risk sizing should respect wider swings.
Pivots: PP 107,029.48, R1 108,146.95, S1 104,818.96. Above PP would ease pressure; loss of S1 would likely embolden sellers. Overall tone on D1 is **neutral** by regime, but indicators lean bearish.
H1 — BTC Analysis
EMA: Price remains below H1 EMA20 (108,648.96), EMA50 (109,989.83), and EMA200 (113,793.06) — intraday trend is down, so rallies face supply.
RSI: RSI(14) at 27.63 sits in oversold territory, hinting at possible short-term bounces, though trend context tempers expectations.
MACD: MACD line -876.18 under signal -729.92 and histogram -146.26 — bearish momentum persists but shows slight deceleration.
Bollinger Bands: Mid 108,686.59; lower 106,217.34. Price at 105,936.43 is just below the lower band, indicating short-term stretch that could snap back toward the mid-line if sellers pause.
ATR: ATR(14) 843.03 suggests active intraday volatility — good for traders, but it can cut both ways.
Pivots: PP 106,250.10, R1 106,588.18, S1 105,598.34. Holding below PP keeps bias soft; losing S1 risks another leg down. Intraday tone: heavy but prone to relief pops.
M15 — BTC Analysis
EMA: Price below EMA20 (107,738.18), EMA50 (108,349.81), and EMA200 (110,001.91) — micro trend is firmly bearish.
RSI: RSI(14) at 17.50 is deeply oversold, warning of possible quick squeezes if sellers overextend.
MACD: Line -605.89 vs signal -290.55 with histogram -315.34 — strong negative impulse; momentum feels fragile and one-sided.
Bollinger Bands: Mid 108,193.15; lower 106,050.98. Price at 105,924.58 has pierced the lower band, a classic sign of short-term exhaustion risk.
ATR: ATR(14) 394.10 highlights brisk micro volatility.
Synthesis: D1 regime is neutral with bearish tilt, while H1 and M15 are bearish but oversold — **BTC Analysis** suggests a cautious, bounce-prone downtrend.
Trading scenarios — BTC Analysis
Bullish
Trigger: A sustained move above 108,146.95 (D1 R1) could invite follow-through buying.
Target: First 109,086.65 (EMA200 D1), then the 114,329.64–114,701.44 zone (EMA20/EMA50).
Invalidation: A drop back below 105,488.27 (D1 lower band) would weaken the setup.
Risk: Consider stops around 0.5–1.0× D1 ATR (≈ 2,482.52–4,965.04 USDT), acknowledging elevated volatility.
Bearish
Trigger: Failure below 106,250.10 (H1 PP) followed by a break under 105,598.34 (H1 S1) and 105,488.27 could extend downside.
Target: 104,818.96 (D1 S1). Further levels: not provided.
Invalidation: Reclaiming 108,146.95 would reduce immediate bearish pressure.
Risk: Stops sized at 0.5–1.0× D1 ATR (≈ 2,482.52–4,965.04 USDT) to account for whipsaws.
Neutral (Main)
Trigger: Price oscillates between 105,488.27 (D1 lower band) and 107,029.48 (D1 PP), with shrinking intraday ATRs.
Target: Range trading toward 106,250.10 (H1 PP) as mean-reversion base case.
Invalidation: A decisive break above 108,146.95 or below 104,818.96 ends the range view.
Risk: Use modest sizing and 0.5× ATR buffers while range conditions persist.
Overall takeaway: The main path is a cautious range until D1 pivots break — this **BTC Analysis** favors patience. For more perspective on trading sentiment during corrections, see Bitcoin price falling below 110,000 USD.
Market context
Total crypto market cap: 3,685,813,160,583.83 USD; 24h change: -4.44%. BTC dominance: 57.53%. Fear & Greed Index: 22 (Extreme Fear). High dominance and fear typically weigh on altcoins while BTC sets the tone. Find additional context in this market analysis.
Context takeaway: Macro risk appetite is fragile; in this **BTC Analysis**, broader headwinds argue for disciplined levels and flexible expectations.
