In summary
- APT Analysis: Price at 3.23 USDT sits below the daily EMAs, reinforcing a bearish regime.
- RSI 31.84 on D1 → momentum remains weak, bounces could be short-lived.
- MACD negative on D1 with a shrinking histogram → bearish pressure persists but may be easing slightly.
- Pivots: D1 PP at 3.24 is overhead; R1 3.30 caps, S1 3.16 supports.
- Volatility: D1 ATR 0.61 points to wide daily swings; intraday ATRs stay tight.
Takeaway: Sellers retain control on the higher timeframe; intraday looks balanced but fragile. For a comprehensive overview and live APT market data, you can refer to CoinMarketCap’s Aptos (APT) page.
Multi-timeframe APT Analysis
D1 — Primary trend
EMAs: Price 3.23 trades below the EMA20 3.78, EMA50 4.17, and EMA200 4.91. This alignment confirms a bearish stack, signaling sellers remain in charge until the price reclaims the 20-day.
RSI 31.84: The oscillator sits in bearish territory (<50). This suggests momentum is weak and rallies may fade unless RSI recovers back toward 50.
MACD: Line -0.38 below signal -0.29 with histogram -0.09. This indicates downside momentum still dominates, though the modest histogram hints the sell impulse could be stabilizing.
Bollinger Bands: Mid 4.09, Upper 5.87, Lower 2.31 with price in the lower half. This shows a market leaning bearish; volatility is ample and pushes toward the lower band cannot be ruled out.
ATR 0.61: Elevated daily volatility. Risk control matters; wide swings can quickly test nearby levels.
Pivots (D1): PP 3.24, R1 3.30, S1 3.16. Trading just under PP keeps a cautious bias; losing S1 would likely embolden sellers.
Bias: The D1 structure is bearish; sentiment remains defensive.
H1 — Intraday view
EMAs: Price 3.23 sits marginally below EMA20/50 ~3.24 while EMA200 3.42 is higher. This reflects a neutral-to-soft intraday tone within a broader downtrend.
RSI 47.98: Near 50 and flat. Momentum looks hesitant; buyers and sellers are evenly matched intraday.
MACD: Near zero with a tiny negative histogram (-0.01). Momentum is muted; breakouts may lack follow-through until volume improves.
Bollinger: Mid 3.27, upper 3.36, lower 3.18; price hovers in the lower half. Volatility is contained, favoring ranges around the pivot.
ATR 0.05 and Pivots: PP 3.22, R1 3.24, S1 3.21. Tight ranges suggest mean reversion unless R1/S1 gives way.
M15 — Micro structure
EMAs: 20/50/200 crowd at 3.23–3.24. This compression often precedes a small breakout.
RSI 49.10 and flat MACD: Very neutral, signaling balance with no strong short-term edge.
Bollinger/ATR: Mid 3.22, upper 3.26, lower 3.19 with ATR 0.02. Micro volatility is tight; watch pivot flips for quick scalps.
Synthesis: D1 is bearish, while H1 and M15 are neutral-to-sideways. Overall, a cautious, sell-into-strength structure remains the working APT Analysis view. To follow similar technical scene on other altcoins, explore analyses such as XRP: Ripple Defends Pivot Amid Downside Pressure.
Key levels — APT Analysis
| Level | Type | Bias/Note |
|---|---|---|
| 5.87 | Bollinger Upper (D1) | Extreme resistance |
| 4.91 | EMA200 (D1) | Major resistance |
| 4.17 | EMA50 (D1) | Resistance |
| 4.09 | Bollinger Mid (D1) | Mean reversion area |
| 3.78 | EMA20 (D1) | First trend resistance |
| 3.30 | Pivot R1 (D1) | Near-term cap |
| 3.24 | Pivot PP (D1) | Key pivot; overhead |
| 3.23 | Last Close | Reference |
| 3.16 | Pivot S1 (D1) | First support |
| 2.31 | Bollinger Lower (D1) | Downside extension |
Takeaway: Until PP 3.24 and EMA20 3.78 are reclaimed, resistance layers dominate.
Trading scenarios — APT Analysis
Bearish (main)
Trigger: Failure at 3.24–3.30 or a breakdown below 3.16. Target: 3.16 first, then the Bollinger lower band at 2.31 if momentum accelerates. Invalidation: Daily close above 3.30, or ideally above EMA20 3.78. Risk: Consider stops around 0.5–1.0× D1 ATR (0.31–0.61) given elevated volatility.
Bullish
Trigger: Reclaim 3.24 and hold above 3.30. Target: EMA20 3.78 and Bollinger mid 4.09 as stretch objectives. Invalidation: Slip back below 3.22 (H1 PP) or a daily close under 3.16. Risk: Intraday entries might size with 0.5–1.0× H1 ATR (0.03–0.05); swings can reference D1 ATR 0.61.
Neutral
Trigger: Sustained range between 3.16 and 3.30 with H1 momentum flat. Target: Mean-reversion toward 3.24–3.27. Invalidation: Range expansion beyond 3.30 or below 3.16. Risk: Tighter stops (0.3–0.5× ATRs) to avoid chop.
Takeaway: With D1 bearish, patience favors selling rallies unless key resistances flip.
Market context — APT Analysis
Total crypto market cap: 3.75T USD, 24h change: +0.19%. BTC dominance: 57.58%. Fear & Greed: 25 (Extreme Fear).
High dominance and fear often weigh on altcoins like APT, limiting risk appetite and favoring defensive posture. If you’re interested in a broader market perspective, see how other ecosystems are reacting in analyses such as Crypto News Weekly: What Awaits Us This Week?.
Takeaway: Macro tone is cautious; altcoin bids may remain selective.
Ecosystem and DeFi signals
Hyperion: Fees total 19,211,087,335; avg daily 74,717,752.79; 1d +9.18%, 7d -8.10%, 30d +18.95.
ThalaSwap V2: Total 8,223,388,413; 1d +1.69%, 7d -94.60%, 30d -93.36. ThalaSwap: Total 4,113,629,323; 1d +4.89%, 7d -56.71%, 30d -8.16.
Tapp Exchange: Total 443,251,518; 1d -25.61%, 7d -60.94%, 30d -31.74. LiquidSwap: Total 2,690,021,901; 1d -67.87%, 7d -74.99%, 30d -76.87.
These mixed readings suggest uneven participation across the ecosystem, which can dampen broad-based follow-through for rallies. For news of large DeFi and blockchain developments relevant to the Aptos ecosystem, see the collaboration with Panora, the DEX aggregator: Panora, the DEX aggregator of Aptos, closes a round with Frictionless Capital.
Takeaway: Mixed fees suggest selective participation across DeFi platforms — an extra headwind in the current APT Analysis.
To learn more directly from the official project behind Aptos, visit Aptos Labs – official site.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. #NFA #DYOR
