Gold (XAU/USD) edges higher on Thursday, trading around $4,115, up nearly 0.40% for the day. Demand for safe-haven assets remains firm amid the prolonged budget deadlock in Washington and persistent geopolitical uncertainty. Expectations of further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) continue to support the precious metal, with markets pricing in a 97% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut next week, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Markets are treading carefully ahead of the September US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, due Friday. This report will attract particular attention as the ongoing government shutdown has led to a shortage of official data. A hotter-than-expected reading could strengthen the US Dollar (USD) and temporarily cap Gold’s upside, while softer inflation would reinforce expectations of additional interest rate cuts by the Fed.
Traders are also closely monitoring US-China trade discussions. The White House is reportedly considering restrictions on software and technology exports to China, rekindling fears of a trade war. However, the announcement of a meeting next week between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping is keeping hopes of de-escalation alive.
On the macroeconomic front, recent speeches by Fed governors Michelle Bowman and Michael Barr, along with regional activity data from the Chicago and Kansas Feds, will provide additional guidance on the US monetary outlook. In this environment of uncertainty and contained volatility, Gold remains structurally supported by a mix of geopolitical, fiscal, and monetary drivers.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
