Good morning. Geoff Colvin in for Diane today. Is AI enabling the economy to grow without any need for new jobs? If that happens, what kind of world will we face? It’s a question that’s top of mind for leaders given recent events.
Recently, Goldman Sachs published an analysis titled “Jobless Growth,” noting the current odd pattern of the U.S. economy growing strongly while jobs increase only slowly. The Goldman analysts aren’t extremists like, say, legendary venture capitalist Vinod Khosla, who says AI will automate 80% of all jobs by 2030. Still, they see “concerning signs” in companies increasingly using AI.
A recession could clarify the big picture considerably, they say. That’s when workers in routine jobs tend to get laid off and not brought back when the recession ends. Consider for example the 2001 recession following the internet bust. CEOs had been working hard to use the internet in their businesses, reducing headcount in the process, but firing lots of employees is unpleasant, and bosses often put it off. The recession forced them to see how many employees they didn’t need anymore, and it was a lot. Economists call the aftermath “the jobless recovery.”
The day after the Goldman analysis appeared, Goldman itself sent a memo warning employees of potential job cuts and slower hiring through the rest of the year, noting that “the rapidly accelerating advancements in AI can unlock significant productivity gains for us.” A spokesman told Reuters the company still expects total headcount to have risen by year end. That same day, Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser told Wall Street analysts about the many ways in which the company is finding abundant efficiencies with AI. Just one use, involving software production, “saves considerable time and creates around 100,000 hours of weekly capacity,” she said. “That’s a very meaningful productivity uplift.”
Next day: An analyst asked Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan about AI as an efficiency driver for the company. Moynihan said the company was using it in just that way. “If we had 285,000 people 15 years ago,” he said, “we have 213,000 people 1761213898.” Those far fewer employees today are producing much, much better performance: The bank’s net income 15 years ago was a loss of $2 billion; last year, with 25% fewer workers, it was a profit of $27 billion.
History tells us not to worry. General purpose technologies such as AI don’t come around very often, but when they do, they always eliminate vast swaths of jobs. Panic ensues. Then unlimited human creativity invents new jobs that deliver more value overall, and living standards rise. The process may take many years, but it has never failed us. Now AI, with its promise of developing intelligence greater than our own, forces us to confront a momentous question: Is this time different?
If you’re inclined to dig into those questions, consider joining us for an upcoming Fortune digital event in partnership with Workday where we’ll be exploring how leading CFOs are approaching the age of AI. It will take place Thursday, Nov. 13, and you can register here.
More news below.
Contact CEO Daily via Diane Brady at diane.brady@fortune.com
Top news
Tesla’s revenue soars, profits drop
Elon Musk’s carmaker reported record vehicle sales in the third quarter, which drove revenue to a new high of $28 billion, but profits cratered due in part to more spending on AI R&D. Musk used the earnings call to advocate for his proposed pay package that could be worth up to $1 trillion and grant him significant control of the company, arguing that if he builds Tesla’s robot army, as he’s pledged to do, he should be able to influence it.
New Russia sanctions
The U.S. imposed new sanctions on Russia’s two biggest oil companies—the second Trump administration’s first direct action against Moscow—in an effort to pressure the Kremlin over the Ukraine war.
Meta lays off 600
Meta confirmed Wednesday that it’s planning to lay off 600 employees to reduce layers in its AI division. The cuts are not expected to touch Meta’s top-tier AI hires who are overseen by chief AI officer Alexandr Wang.
JPMorgan’s new headquarters
JPMorgan Chase’s new $3 billion, 60-story headquarters in Manhattan opens this week, and CEO Jamie Dimon has pulled out all the stops to lure workers back to the office. The Park Avenue skyscraper features 19 restaurants, an assortment of coffee shops, and at full capacity can seat 10,000 employees.
Citi CEO becomes chair
Citibank is joining other Wall Street banks in combining the role of CEO and board chair. It’s named CEO Jane Fraser as chair and awarded her a one-time bonus of $25 million as she steers its ongoing turnaround. Shares have climbed 50% in the past year. Citi separated the CEO and chair roles about 15 years ago.
Senate Dems probe Witkoff’s crypto holdings
Eight Senate Democrats led by Sen. Adam Schiff (D–Calif.) sent a letter to Trump advisor Steve Witkoff demanding that he explain why his latest ethics filing shows he still holds stakes in crypto ventures including World Liberty Financial, a Trump-linked cryptocurrency company. In May, the company stated that Witkoff was “in the process of fully divesting” his stake. Spokespeople for the White House and World Liberty Financial did not immediately respond to questions for comment.
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella pay package soars
A new proxy filing reveals that Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella’s total compensation jumped to $96.5 million for fiscal 2025. The company’s board noted that the pay bump is connected to Nadella’s work establishing “Microsoft as a clear artificial intelligence leader for this generational technology shift.”
The markets
S&P 500 futures were flat this morning. The last session closed down 0.53%. STOXX Europe 600 was up 0.18% in early trading. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up 0.43% in early trading. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 1.35%. China’s CSI 300 was up 0.3%. The South Korea KOSPI was down 0.98%. India’s NIFTY 50 was up 0.15%. Bitcoin is up at $109K.
Around the watercooler
From trading floors to streaming wars: Grindr’s ex-CFO on taking career risks at the right time by Ruth Umoh
JPMorgan’s new $3 billion skyscraper is open 24/7—and bankers can order coffee straight to their desks by Nino Paoli
Apple is ‘drastically’ cutting iPhone Air production, report says, after new survey reveals ‘virtually no demand’ by Dave Smith
As government shutdown persists, ICE agents are among the still-paid employees receiving ‘super checks’ including lost pay and overtime by Sasha Rogelberg
CEO Daily is compiled and edited by Joey Abrams and Claire Zillman.
